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1. According to a recent estimate, the divorce rate in England has fallen to a 26-year low(The Guardian, August 2008). However, it is documented that the rate of divorce ismore than twice as high for men and women aged 25 to 29. John Haddock is asociologist from Sussex University who wants to analyze the divorce rate based on anindividualâs age, family income, and the number of children the couple has. He collectsdata on 30 individuals in a small town near Brighton, shown below.DivorceAge001110010110000010011100100000101110010111001000000000111000Income194640694478309993329181359325355141943168792679385693947126Children331000001232022313100102022220a) Estimate and interpret the Logit Model to predict Divorce (1 for Divorce; 0 otherwise)with three potential predictors: age (1 if 25-29 years old; 0 otherwise), family income (in⬠1,000), and the number of children. Find the âbestâ model with these predictorsb) Do the data support the articleâs claim that divorce rate is higher for those aged 25-29years old? Explain in terms of the slope coefficientc) Pick a good threshold for your prediction cutoff and find the sensitivity and specificity ofthe model using that threshold.d) Use the above estimates to predict the probability of a divorce for an individual who is27 years old, has â¬60,000 of family income, and one child. Recalculate the probabilitywith three children.
