At what stage of the economic cycle do you believe the Australian economy to be in? Why? Please explain?

Essay question.

  1. At what stage of the economic cycle do you believe the Australian economy to be in? Why?    Please explain?

Use your references to economic statistics or charts to back up and illustrate your answer.

 

Take the form of an essay.

Please argue that the Australian economy is currently in a trough and trying to recover.

 

Approximately 2000 – 2500 words. (not including charts).

(In your answer refer to the components of aggregate demand, and the Reserve Bank of Australia current policy stance).Guide – each indicator your use, relate or link that back to GDP or components of GDP for relevance. Link the indicator to your argument.

Marking Guide :

In marking this assessment piece, the number of sources you review to obtain economic data, the number of economic data references you make, the relevance of that economic data to the current economic climate; and the analysis and discussion of the relevance of that economic data to the key components of GDP (aggregate demand) – will form the basis of how you are marked in this assessment.

Notes to writer:

Economic Stats to reference (guide). Please refer to ‘Aggregate Demad’ in the economy. Please use at least 8 indicators to support your aguement. Indicators such as GDP growth, Inflation, Interest rates, unemployment, business indicatrors such as retail spending, building approvals, buiding permits, new home sales, business confidence, new orders, consumer confidence, commodity prices (coal and Iron Ore) and retail sales (month on month and year on year). Use the economic stats in your answer. Best to look at several months for each and see if there are any trends over a recent period.

What is a ‘Trough’
A trough is the stage of the economy’s business cycle that marks the end of a period of declining business activity and the transition to expansion.

In general, the business cycle is said to go through expansion, then a peak, followed by contraction and then finally bottoming out with the trough.

The Website below is a very good source of reference to support your aguement with indicators and has all the indicators above.

https://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/indicators

Text book reference

Anthony Di Stasio and Costa Georgeson. Apply Economic Priciples to work in the Fincial Services Industry. (Refer Chapter 7)

Also use Reserve Bank minutes and statements on monetary policy to support your arguement.

Reserve Bank of Australia – minutes 2016
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rba-board-minutes/2016/

Reserve Bank of Australia – Statement on Monetary policy, August 2016
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2016/aug/

Reserve Bank of Australia – Interest rate decisions
https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/int-rate-decisions/2016/

Use Westpac and Nab leading indicators below.

https://www.melbourneinstitute.com/miaesr/publications/indicators/ecoact.html

https://business.nab.com.au/nab-quarterly-business-survey-june-quarter-2016-17763/

Mark Examples :
DISTINCTION :  Source a minimum of 8 relevant economic data figures –analyse and link this data back to their relevance to Aggregate Demand and the effect on the economy & the current economic climate.
CREDIT :  Source a minimum of 6 relevant economic data figures –analyse and link this data back to their relevance to Aggregate Demand and the effect on the economy & the current economic climate.
PASS :  Source a minimum of 4 relevant economic data figures –analyse and link this data back to their relevance to Aggregate Demand and the effect on the economy & the current economic climate.
If you only use 4 economic data figures, this is not many in regards of the various data available, so will need to ensure you have used the 4 data sources that are most important and relevant to the current economic climate/ situation.
UNSATISFACTORY : not fulfilling entirely any of the criteria set out above.

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